In an essay on Wednesday, Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, weighted the debate on the success of the Chinese Society of Ai Deepseek implies that the controls of US exports to the chips do not work.
Amodei, who recently presented the case of stronger export checks in a co-script by a former national security councilor of the United States Matt Pottinger, says that in the essay he believes that the current export checks are slowing down progress of Chinese societies such as Deepseek. Compared to the performance of the strongest models to the products from the United States, says Amodei, the fall of Deepseek did not make the foresight during the release period.
“Deepseek has produced a model close to the performance of the US models 7-10 months older, for a good cost (but not nowhere close to the relationships that people have suggested),” said Amodei. “(This is) an expected point on a reduction curve of current costs. The different thing this time is that the company that was the first to demonstrate the reductions in the expected costs was Chinese “.
Amodei compares one of the flagship models of Deepseek, Deepseek V3, with the sonnet Claude 3.5 of Anthropic, who according to him cost a “few $ 10 million” to train. The formation of Sonnet ended from 9 to 12 months ago, while the Deepseek model was trained in November or December – but Sonnet remains ahead in a series of “internal and exterior Evals”, observes Amodei.
“US companies (they are also) reaching the usual tendency to reduce costs,” added Amodei. “Deepseek efficiency innovations developed will soon be applied by US and Chinese workshops to form multimiliards models”.
Amodei, who calls Deepseek “in the essay” great talent “who” show because China is a serious competitor for the United States “, provides for a crossroads on the road depending on the export policies that the Trump administration embraces. Before Trump came in office, the outgoing administration Biden imposed new restrictions on hardware exports that should have effect in the coming months, but this could be reduced if Trump wished to do so.
If Trump strengthens the rules of export and prevents China from obtaining what Amodei describes as “millions of chips” for the development of artificial intelligence, the United States and its allies could potentially establish a “command and long -lasting”, he says Amodei. If, on the other hand, the United States no longer make it demanding for China to import chips, the country could “direct more talents, capital and concentrate” on “military applications” of artificial intelligence technologies, fears of Amodei.
“In combination with its great industrial base and military-strategic advantages, this could help China to take an imposing command on the global phase,” said Amodei. “To be clear, the goal here is not to deny China or any other authoritarian country the immense benefits in science, medicine, in the quality of life and so on that they come from very powerful artificial intelligence systems. Everyone should be able to benefit from the AI. The goal is to prevent them from gaining military domain. “
It seems likely that Amodei will get its favorite result. In an audition of the Senate on Wednesday, the billionaire businessman Howard Lutnick, Trump’s choice for the Secretary of Commerce, accused Deepseek of stolen the American IP.
“What this showed is that our export controls, not supported by the rates, are like a model of Mole Whack-a,” Lutnick said. “Chinese rates should be the highest.”
As secretary to trade, Lutnick would have a key role in carrying out Trump plans to lift and respect the rates.
Openi, the main anthropic rival, has also invited the Trump administration to take more aggressive measures to guarantee the domain of the United States in artificial intelligence. In a recently published political document, Openai warned that if the United States do not attract the global funds necessary for artificial intelligence projects, “they will flow towards projects supported by China” and “(strengthen) the global influence of the Chinese Communist Party” .
